The Yankees lineup that shows up at the Stadium this week is barely the one that started the season. Aaron Judge is out. Giancarlo Stanton is out. Weathers is out. Cody Bellinger just got back. This is late August, Wild Card race on, and New York is patching together a lineup card like it's a rebuild year instead of a pennant chase.
Boston is walking into that. A Red Sox team that has spent all year either mashing or going ice cold with nothing in between shows up against a Yankees offense that no longer resembles itself. That is the whole tension in this total. Nobody knows which version of either lineup takes the field, and a number like 8.5 is really just a bet on whether either side can string together consistent innings right now.
This is still Red Sox-Yankees, still with playoff seeding on the line, still capable of turning into a slugfest if the bullpens fold. But the injury report makes this one harder to trust than a normal rivalry game. Over or under 8.5, you're deciding which team's damage matters more.